By
Hannah Griffith
|
7 min read
|
October 21, 2022

Florida Housing Market Update Report - Fall 2022

florida housing market

What’s the Florida Housing Market Like?

The fast growth of the Florida Real Estate market has slowed considerably in the past 6 months. The Fed’s aggressive monetary policies to curve inflation are having a direct impact on the Florida housing market as we see the decrease in month-over-month home prices and sales volume. 

As of Sept 2022, the median price for a home in the state was $392,700, down 4.5% from the peak of  $411,200  in May 2022. It is clear that the recent steep rise in mortgage rates has curved sales activity and shrunk affordability, and the result has been a drop in home prices.

Sales volume has also dropped considerably. In Sept 2022, there were 28,456 homes sold in the state of Florida, a 31% decrease from the previous month of Aug  2022, when we had 35,649 homes sold. Comparing year-over-year, we saw a 30.5% decrease in sales from Sept 2021, when there were 40,926 home sales.

The number of sales peak was 51,604 in March 2021; compared to Sept 2022’s numbers, we are down 44.9% in the number of homes sold from the peak of the last three years.

housing market florida

How Does The Florida Housing Market Compare to the National Housing Market?

The Florida housing market is similar to other markets because supply and demand drive housing prices. Florida is also impacted by mortgage rates as the rest of the nation. 

Florida does have some advantages over other states. Known as “the sunshine state”, Florida attracts people from all over the country, even from other sunny Western states like California and Arizona. The state of Florida is so popular and in high demand that home prices in some areas of Florida have shot up 50% higher than the national average. 

Florida’s home prices and sales numbers have begun to slow down along with the rest of the country. Differences in the regional economy of some of Florida’s metro areas make those markets more vulnerable and others more resilient to the current economics. 

One significant distinction Florida is facing this year is the devastating impact of Hurricane Ian, which caused severe damage in the state's Southwest region. For the time being, the area impacted by the hurricane is facing an even more significant housing shortage.

Florida Metro Areas With the Hottest Housing Markets 

The state of Florida has seen explosive growth in housing demand in recent years. In fact several regions of the Florida Golf Coast experienced 150-300% price growth compared to the national average. Tampa was named the hottest housing market by Zillow earlier this year, and several other cities have made the top 10 in publications such as Fortune and Wall Street Journal. 

The top areas in the number of sales are

  1. Tampa
  2. Miami
  3. Palm Beach
  4. Daytona  Beach
  5. Orlando

Tampa is located along Florida’s Gold Coast and is home to about 385,000 residents. Tampa is a major business center and is also well known for its cultural offering, such as museums and performing arts events. Tampa home prices have been doing quite well over the last few years; in fact, Tampa topped the list of cities that had the biggest increase in prices in 2021 with a 29.4% year-over-year increase.  For 2022, September’s median price was $390,000, again up 19.2% over Sept 2021.

In Sept of 2022, there were 638 homes sold in Tampa, a 40.7% drop in sales from the same period in 2021.

The median days on the market is 22, which indicates a seller's market. Compared to Sept 2021, the median days on the market is twice as many in 2022.

Miami is currently a competitive seller’s market. In Sept 2022, there were 884  homes sold with a median price of $530,000. The median home price in Miami is up a whopping 24.5% from Sept of 2021, while the number of homes sold was down 35.2% compared to the same period.

The median days on the market is 55, and it’s up 27% compared to May 2022. This is a sign of the impact rates and home prices have on home buyers.

Orlando is a major tourist attraction and one of the most visited cities in the world. Home to Disney World and the Universal Orlando resort, among other major attractions. Orlando is also one of the busiest cities for business conferences and conventions thanks to the Orange County Convention Center, the 2nd largest of its kind in the nation.

Orlando is considered a competitive/hot market right now. In Sept 2022, there were 819 homes sold with a median price of $362,600. The median price in Orlando was up 15.8% over Sept of 2021, while the number of homes sold was down 37.8% compared to the same period.

The median number of days on the market for Sept was 20 days which is 150% higher than in May of 2022. The Orlando market went from sizzling hot to just hot.

Palm Beach is a wealthy community on the coast of Florida known for its glitzy estates and spectacular beaches. The area is considered a hot seller’s market.

There were only 15 homes sold in Sept 2022, with a median price of $1,750,000. The median price in Palm Beach was up 137.3%  from Sept 2021, while the number of homes sold was down 53% compared to the same period. 

The median days on the market is 25 days, nearly half the number of days from Sept 2022. These stats are a clear indicator of how hot the market is in Palm Beach. While practically every other place in the nation is experiencing declining numbers, Tampa’s housing stats are looking relatively healthy.

Daytona Beach is the world’s most famous beach, known for hosting some of the largest motorsports events, most notably the Daytona 500, AKA “The Great American race.” 

Daytona Beach is currently a balanced market; demand is competitive but not prohibitive. In Sept 2022, there were 171 homes sold with a median price of $250,000. 

The median price in Daytona Beach is up 19% from Sept 2021, while the number of homes sold was down 18.6% compared to the same period. The median days on the market is 44, up 10 days compared to May 2022.

Higher Mortgage Rates Could Slow Price Growth in Florida

How will interest rates affect the housing market? We are already experiencing the impact of rising interest rates across the nation. Price growth in Florida has been flattening or on a slight decline for several months in 2022. However, Florida is such a high-demand destination that it may very well fare better than the rest of the country.

As of mid-October 2022, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is above 7% on average. That represents a 133% increase in mortgage rates in less than nine months. The Feds are on a “no holds barred” approach to curve inflation, and interest rate hikes have become the norm over the last several Fed meetings. Unfortunately, it seems that rate hikes are not done.. We anticipate at least another 2 or 3 rate increases before the year ends. 

Key Market Stats for the Florida Housing Market:

As of the latest compiled housing report with data through Sept 2022.

Median home price $392,700 - 15.1% up from 2021

Existing home sales: 28,456 - a 30.5% drop from 2021

Months supply of inventory: 3 - up 200% from 2021

Mortgage rates as of Oct 13th are at 7.2%

Historic price changes & affordability

The Florida housing market has seen explosive appreciation for years. The last 3 years have been particularly favorable to homeowners as they saw their homes appreciate by 53% in 36 months.   

The steep rise in home prices and mortgage rates has shrunk affordability to record lows in the state. A 53% spike in home prices and an equally sharp increase in mortgage rates in the last 12 months does not spell good news for the Florida Real Estate market.

We know that the average person’s wages do not increase by 53% in three years, so we can see why affordability is a problem. The gap between rising home prices and wages keep getting wider.

Key Takeaways

  1. The housing market is clearly shifting, and the New York housing market is going to follow the trend as the rest of the nation. The good news is that many metro areas are not considered to be overvalued in New York. The price of homes relative to the annual income in the area is in line with a sensible ratio that indicates the fundamentals of value are still good for those areas.
  1. Real Estate markets are highly local, and even within the same state, there will be areas that are projected to be hit hard by the market shift and others will fare better. Look for areas where the market has not jumped in values over the last three years, and there are plenty of those in the state of New York.
  2. Timing the market for buying or selling is a big gamble. If it makes sense for you to buy, go ahead and buy a home. For sellers, if you have to sell in the next 12-24 months, you may want to consider doing it sooner than later, especially if you are in an area that may be considered overvalued and has a high potential for house prices to drop.

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