By
Hannah Griffith
|
17 min read
|
October 20, 2022

Texas Housing Market Report and Forecast 2022

texas housing market

What’s the Texas Housing Market Like?

Texas Real Estate markets are starting to reflect the easing of the pandemic-induced housing frenzy. The Fed’s aggressive monetary policies to curve inflation directly impact the Texas housing market as we see the decrease in month-over-month home prices and sales volume. 

As of Sept 2022, the median price for a home in the state was $355,800, down 7% from the peak of  $382,800  in May 2022. It is clear that the recent steep rise in mortgage rates has curved sales activity and shrunk affordability, and the result has been a drop in home prices.

Sales volume has also dropped considerably. In Sept, there were 26,777 homes sold in the state of Texas, a 10.8% decrease from the previous month of Aug 2022, when we had 30,013 homes sold. Comparing year-over-year, we saw a 17% decrease in sales from Sept 2021, where we had 32,334.

The number of sales peak was 38,017 in July 2020; compared to Sept 2022’s numbers, we are down 30% in homes sold from the peak of the last three years.

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How Does The Texas Housing Market Compare to the National Housing Market?

The Texas housing market is similar to other markets because supply and demand drive housing prices. Texas is also impacted by mortgage rates as the rest of the nation. 

Some differences in the local economy of some of Texa’s metro areas make those markets a bit more vulnerable and others more resilient to the current economics. 

Take  Austin, for example; the area became a tech hub in recent years, attracting people from all over the nation due to growth, opportunity, and affordability. Demand went up, and so did home prices. Today, Austin is at the top of the cities where home prices are dropping the most. 

Other markets such as the Killeen-Temple Metro area, are still doing well. As of Aug 2022, the Median price in the area was $279,000, up 24% from the same quarter last year. The number of homes for sale went up 93% from last year, which is good for buyers. Interestingly enough, even with the increase of listings year over year, there was still only 1.1 months supply and days on the market were actually 7 days less than in the same period in 2021. 

Texas Metro Areas With the Hottest Housing Markets 

The state of Texas has seen explosive growth in recent years. In fact, from 2010 to 2020, the state population grew by four million residents, more than any state in the nation. One interesting fact, 25% of those moving to Texas came from California.

The top areas in the number of sales are:

  1. Houston
  2. Dallas
  3. Fort Worth
  4. San Antonio
  5. Austin

Houston is still considered a seller’s market. In Sept 2022, there were 2,307 homes sold with a median price of $335,397. The median home price in Houston is up 7% from a year ago in Sept 2021. 

The median days on the market is 31, slightly lower than a month ago by 2 days and twice as long compared to May 2022.

Dallas is currently a seller’s market. In Sept 2022, there were 972 homes sold with a median price of $399,500. The median home price in Dallas is up 6.5% from Sept of 2021, while the number of homes sold was down 27% compared to the same period.

The median days on the market is 28, and it’s twice the number of days compared to May of 2022. This is a sign of the impact rates and home prices have on home buyers.

Fort Worth is currently a seller’s market. In Sept 2022, there were 1,020 homes sold with a median price of $349,900. The median price in Dallas is up 14.7% from Sept 2021 while the number of homes sold was down 21% compared to the same period.

The median days on the market is 26 days, twice the number of days in May of 2022.

San Antonio is currently a seller's market. In Sept 2022, there were 1,304 homes sold with a median price of $287,000. The median price in San Antonio is up 8.3% from Sept 2021, while the number of homes sold was down 27% compared to the same period.

The median days on the market is 28, up 12 days compared to May 2022.

Austin is considered a neutral market right now. In Sept 2022, there were 852 homes sold with a median price of $563,212. The median price in Austin is up 2.4% over Sept of 2021 while the number of homes sold was down 36% compared to the same period.

The median days on the market in Austin is 51 days, up 25 days from May of 2022.

Texas Housing Market Predictions for 2022

Texas and the rest of the country are likely to experience a decline in home values. The number of sales has been declining month over month for the past five months at a fast pace. Rising mortgage rates continue to burden home buyers in Texas, further compounding the problem.

A recent report published by Fortune magazine indicates that several of Texas’ housing markets are in a high to very high likelihood of facing a price drop over the coming year.

Austin, Midland, San Antonio, and Amarillo are among the areas with a higher than 50%  probability of a price drop.

Higher Mortgage Rates Could Slow Price Growth in Texas

How will interest rates affect the housing market? We are already experiencing the impact of rising interest rates. Price growth in Texas has been on a decline for several months. If we look at both month over month and year over year, the trend is down. 

As of mid-October 2022, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is above 7% on average. That represents a 133% increase in mortgage rates in less than nine months. The Feds are on a “no holds barred” approach to curve inflation, and interest rate hikes have become the norm over the last several Fed meetings. Unfortunately, it seems that rate hikes are not done.. We anticipate at least another 2 or 3 rate increases before the year ends. 

Key Market Stats for the Texas Housing Market:

As of the latest compiled housing report with data through Aug 2022.

Median home price $357,388 - 19.1% up from 2021

Existing home sales: 108,390 - a 5.6% drop from 2021

Months supply of inventory: 2.1% - up 62% from 2021

Mortgage rates as of Oct 13th are at 7.2%

Historic price changes & affordability

The Texas housing market has seen explosive appreciation for years. The last 3 years have been particularly favorable to homeowners as they saw their homes appreciate by 43% in 36 months.   

The steep rise in home prices and mortgage rates has shrunk affordability to record lows in the state. A 43% spike in home prices and an equally sharp increase in mortgage rates in the last 12 months does not spell good news for the Texas Real Estate market.

We know that the average person’s wages do not increase by 43% in three years, so we can see why affordability is a problem. 

Key Takeaways

The housing market is clearly shifting, and Texas housing market predictions for 2022 and 2023 are a bit more confident now than they were just a few months ago. 

The next 18 to 24 months will be an adjustment, especially for home sellers and Real Estate professionals. Adjusting to a normalized market that is not heavily skewed in favor of sellers will take time.

Real Estate markets are highly local and even within the same state, there will be areas that are projected to be hit hard by the market shift and others will fare better. Austin happens to be projected to be the area to see the most dramatic shift in the coming year, according to the Knock real estate platform.

Timing the market for buying or selling is a big gamble. If it makes sense for you to buy, go ahead and buy a home. For sellers, if you have to sell in the next 12-24 months, you may want to consider doing it sooner than later, especially if you are in an area that may be considered overvalued and has a high potential for house prices to drop.

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