Ohio Housing Markey Update Report – Fall 2022
What is the Ohio Housing Market Like?
The housing market in Ohio has been a rollercoaster long before the Pandemic. After sinking during the Great Recession, the Ohio housing market has been steadily climbing, reaching new heights in the past two years. After surging in June 2022 at a $242,900 median sale price, the real estate market is showing the effects of the aggressive interest hike policy initiated by the Federal Reserve Bank in an effort to fight back against inflation, which stands at a forty-year high.
According to data collected in September 2022, the median sale price for an Ohio property stands at $224,800, 7% higher than a year ago. With the cost of borrowing money increasing to levels unseen since 2008, the sale volume has declined, with 12,905 houses sold in September, marking a 16.1% decline compared to the previous year.
The number of days spent on the market is slowly increasing as well to reach 34 in September 2022, unchanged since the year prior but higher than its lowest level of 25 in June 2022. The housing supply has increased to 2 months but remains far from a balanced market would be equivalent to five to six months of housing supply.
How does the Ohio Housing Market Compare to the National Housing Market?
As of October 2022, the Federal Reserve Bank had initiated four consecutive 75 bps interest rate increases, with more on the table until the inflation rate declines to a targeted 2%. Mortgage rates passed the 7% benchmark, which has not been seen since 2008. Over the course of the life of the loan, an interest rate increase of this magnitude represents tens of thousands of dollars and significantly affects the borrowers’ buying power. Would-be homebuyers are struggling as they must contend with a combination of high property prices and high interest rates that put homeownership out of reach for many, particularly first-time home buyers who do not benefit from the equity built in the sale of their previous home.
The Ohio housing market is following similar trends but remains relatively affordable compared to other states, particularly coastal metropolitan centers. During the pandemic, Ohio stood out as one of the destinations prized by remote workers seeking a more affordable lifestyle, a cheaper real estate market, and more living space. In consequence, property prices are remaining higher than the pre-pandemic level but are bound to decline as the market corrects itself.
Ohio Metro Areas with the Hottest Housing Markets
Ohio is the tenth most densely populated state in the country and the seventh-most populous. The hottest housing markets with the most volume are the following:
With a city population of 309,317, Cincinnati is the third-largest city in Ohio, although its metropolitan region is the most populous of the Buckeye State. The Cincinnati housing market is competitive, with listed properties receiving three offers per listing on average, 40% selling above the asking price. The median sale price is $230,000, representing a 4.5% increase compared to the year prior. Houses were selling slightly faster than last year at 44 days compared to 46 in September 2021.
Columbus is the state capital and the most populous city in Ohio, as well as the second-most populous city in the Midwest after Chicago. The Columbus housing market is competitive. Houses for sale receive, on average, three offers per listing, and 44.9% of them sell above the asking price. The median sale price has reached $261,500, representing a 9% increase compared to September 2021. Most houses sell within 38 days, which is one more day than the previous year.
The City of Cleveland is situated along the southern shore of Lake Erie and is home to 372,674 residents, making it one of the major cities of the Great Lakes region. Along with Akron and Canton, it constitutes the larger Cleveland–Akron–Canton combined statistical area (CSA,) which is the most populous in Ohio. The Cleveland housing market is relatively competitive, with properties listed for sale receiving three offers on average per listing and 30.8% selling above the listing price. The median sale price is $125,000, unchanged since September 2021, after a peak at $130,000 in July 2022. Houses typically sell after 29 days on the market, two more days than the year before.
Dayton is the sixth-largest city in the state of Ohio, with a population of 137,644 and the fourth-largest metropolitan area in Ohio. Ohio's borders are within 500 miles of roughly 60% of the country's population and manufacturing infrastructure, giving the city a unique strategic and logistical advantage. The Dayton housing market is competitive, with listed properties receiving four offers on average. 27.1% of properties sell above the asking price. However, the Dayton housing market is already showing signs of decline, with a median sale price of $112,000, 2.6% less than last year.
Akron is the fifth-largest city in Ohio, with a total population of 190,469. After a long history of rubber and tire manufacturing, it has diversified its economy to include manufacturing, education, healthcare, and biomedical research. The Akron housing market is very competitive, with properties listed for sale receiving three offers on average. 39.8% of them sell above the asking price and have reached a median sale price of $138,000, a 15% increase compared to the previous year. On average, homes in Akron sell after 25 days on the market compared to 23 days last year.
Higher Mortgage Rates Could Slow Price Growth in Ohio
The Ohio housing market follows seasonal trends, a median sale price decrease is to be expected in the fall compared to the summer housing market. However, the cooling trends we are observing in data collected in September 2022, with a lower median sale price and longer time spent on the market, could also be a direct consequence of the increase in interest rates following the Fed’s hawkish monetary policy. After spending the past couple of years sitting near historic lows, mortgage rates have exceeded 7% for the first time in October 2022.
Between high interest rates, high property prices, and the specter of inflation looming on the horizon, a market correction – accompanied by lower property prices – appears unavoidable. With mortgage rates standing twice as high as they were a year prior, the would-be homebuyers’ budget is significantly affected. Besides, the Federal Reserve Bank is already gearing towards more interest rate increases before the inflation rate can hit its targeted benchmark of 2%.
Key Market Stats for the Ohio Housing Market
As of the latest compiled housing report with data through Sept 2022.
· Median home sale price: $224,800 – 7% more than in September 2021
· Sale volume: 12,905 – 16.1% less than in September 2021
· Months supply of inventory: 2 – compared to 1 in September 2021
· Mortgage rates as of November 3rd,2022: 6.95%
Historic Price Changes and Affordability
The Ohio housing market has been steadily appreciating in recent years. Between September 2019 and September 2022, the median sale price increased from $168,100 to $224,800, with a market peak of $242,900 in June 2022, representing a 33.73% appreciation over the course of 36 months. Although it represents an impressive increase, it is more moderate than in other parts of the country. Besides, in the third quarter of this year, the Ohio real estate market had the fifth-highest foreclosure rate out of all the states.
The combination of high interest rates and the threat of a recession may lead potential homebuyers to postpone their project, affecting the demand. Besides, with a possible wave of foreclosure and prices affected by the cost of borrowing money, the Ohio housing market may be headed towards a decline, particularly in areas most affected by foreclosures.
The Ohio housing market is starting to show signs of shrinkage. Although a seasonal shrinkage in the fall is to be expected, the increase in mortgage rates could lead to a more significant decline than typical.
Ohio house price trends are very local: although some areas are fairing very well and are remaining competitive, others are dealing with the aftermath of the pandemic with higher foreclosure levels
Nevertheless, the housing supply remains limited at the moment, and Ohio is a seller’s market.